Testing a point null hypothesis -------------------------------------- Example: Does Joe have an average IQ? Let M denote Joe's true IQ. He will take a test with result y which is normal with mean M and standard deviation 15. We wish to test H: M = 100 against K: M<>100. We assign a prior probability q to H and under the alternative hypothesis, we assign M a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation t. Suppose Joe gets a score of 130 -- is this strong evidence that he does not have an "average" IQ? The Minitab program 'm_norm_t' accepts as input - the value M0 to be tested - the prior probability of H - a set of alternative values for the prior standard deviation t (assuming that M is distributed N(M0, t) under K) - the data -- here we input the sample mean (130) and the sample size (1) The program outputs the Bayes factors and the posterior probabilities of the H for each value of t. MTB > exec 'm_norm_t' ENTER THE NULL HYPOTHESIS MEAN M0: DATA> 100 ENTER THE PRIOR PROBABILITY OF M0: DATA> .5 FOR THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS THAT M = M0, ENTER STANDARD DEVIATION(S) OF THE NORMAL PRIOR DISTRIBUTION: DATA> 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 DATA> end ENTER THE STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE POPULATION: DATA> 15 OBSERVED DATA IN WORKSHEET? (TYPE 'y' OR 'n'.) IF YES, INPUT NUMBER OF COLUMN. IF NO, INPUT OBSERVED SAMPLE MEAN AND SAMPLE SIZE: n DATA> 130 1 The Bayes factor in favor of the null hypothesis is: BF_HK 0.99339 0.97421 0.90626 0.72779 0.50431 0.45716 0.65817 1.19470 The posterior probability of the null hypothesis is: prob_H 0.498342 0.493469 0.475412 0.421226 0.335243 0.313735 0.396927 0.544356