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Prior distributions and Bayes factors

Albert (1994) described a general method of testing for the significance of terms in a log-linear model of which the test of independence is a special case. Consider the usual representation of a saturated log-linear model for a two-way table with R rows and C columns. If the counts in the table { tex2html_wrap_inline746 } are independent Poisson with expected counts { tex2html_wrap_inline748 }, the model is written as

displaymath750

where { tex2html_wrap_inline752 } and { tex2html_wrap_inline754 } are the sets of main effect parameters corresponding to the two classification variables and { tex2html_wrap_inline756 } are interaction parameters. Let u denote the entire vector of parameters, and tex2html_wrap_inline760 , tex2html_wrap_inline762 , tex2html_wrap_inline764 denote the corresponding vectors of main effects and interaction parameters.

The hypothesis of independence I is equivalent to the statement that all of the interaction parameters { tex2html_wrap_inline756 } in the saturated model are equal to zero. The dependence hypothesis D is that at least one of the interaction parameters is nonzero. To develop a test for I against D, one must construct a prior distribution on the parameter vector tex2html_wrap_inline776 under both hypotheses. Assume that tex2html_wrap_inline778 and tex2html_wrap_inline764 are independent with prior density

displaymath782

Under both hypotheses I and D, the constant and main effect parameters tex2html_wrap_inline778 are assigned an improper uniform prior. Under the dependence hypothesis D, the set of R C interaction terms { tex2html_wrap_inline756 } are assumed independent from a common normal distribution with mean 0 and variance tex2html_wrap_inline796 . The interaction terms are equal to zero under the independence hypothesis I. This degenerate distribution on the interaction terms can be viewed as the limit of the above N(0, tex2html_wrap_inline796 ) prior as the precision parameter P approaches infinity. In the below expressions, we write the prior as tex2html_wrap_inline804 to indicate the dependence on a single precision hyperparameter P.

The Bayes factor against the hypothesis of independence is given by

displaymath808

the ratio of the marginal probabilities of the data y under the two hypotheses. In this situation, this statistic can be expressed as

displaymath812

where tex2html_wrap_inline814 is the Poisson likelihood function and tex2html_wrap_inline816 denotes the degenerate prior on the interaction terms under the independence hypothesis.


next up previous
Next: Choice of hyperparameters Up: A Test for Independence Previous: A Test for Independence

Jim Albert
Mon Mar 16 13:49:48 EST 1998